Consider a deep shot when the distance and time make short gains insufficient, or when the defensive look leaves room behind it. Accept the chance of an unproductive snap.
What does the defensive look change?
In this game's model, a loaded box can favor throwing behind the second level. Prevent coverage reduces the appeal of a deep attempt while allowing more underneath. A blitz can pressure slower-developing throws. These are modeled sampling weights, not measured predictions for an actual team.
How do routes change the sample?
Deep calls and routes such as Go, Post or Wheel select a deep-pass outcome pool. Short and screen options use their respective pools. Selected outcomes are matched to the current situation with fallbacks when a group is sparse.
What should you compare after the snap?
Compare the trade-off described in the coaching review with the clock and distance you faced. The estimate uses 192 finishes per option and is noisy. One completion does not prove the call was optimal, and one interception does not prove it was wrong.
Historical air-yards and pass definitions: nflverse play-by-play dictionary. Read how we transform the data.