Start with the score you need, then work backward from the clock and field position. Your best decision may be a short gain, a kick or protecting possession.
What score do you need?
A field goal can tie a three-point deficit but leaves you behind when down seven. A touchdown gives six points before the try. While ahead, avoiding a turnover and using time can matter more than maximizing yards on one play.
When should you prioritize the first down?
A fresh set of downs creates more chances to score. Short calls against soft coverage can move the chains, but an in-bounds completion also consumes future runoff. A productive play must help both the distance and the clock situation.
When is a risk worth taking?
A deep throw can cover more field in one snap, with exposure to sacks, incompletions and turnovers in the sampled outcomes. Late in a game, that risk can be more useful than a safe gain that leaves no time for the next snap.
How can you test that choice?
Use Practice to replay a historical opening, change the calls and compare the simulated finish. The post-call review describes this game's model. It does not establish which call an actual NFL coach should have made.
Background sources: NFL rules for downs and scoring and nflverse-based game methodology.